Inflation Not Dead, Just Resting… At Best…

Well, well, the monthly ABS data on inflation came in with a rate that accelerated faster than expected in July, moving closer to the top of the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target, jumping to 2.8% — the highest annual rate since July 2024 — and well above June’s 1.9%. A caveat as always, these monthly indicators are partial, and move about quite a bit, but it suggests the RBA will need to be cautious about further rate cutting. RBA meeting-linked swaps indicate the central bank will stay on hold in September, with the next reduction fully priced for November. Traders then […]